Trump and the Collapse of the International Order
“The Center Will Not Hold” — so what comes next?
It is now six weeks into the Second Trump Administration, and we are seeing troubling signs of a coming collapse of the international order. While some may welcome such a collapse, seeing that system as inequitable and even evil, the fact is that collapse would be a catastrophe for the globe.
Collapse is not a good thing. Collapse is chaotic and damaging. If you want to compare a collapse of our international order to the collapse of a building, I would suggest we look at the difference between a controlled implosion and a building’s catastrophic failure. Such a failure kills people inside the building and threatens those outside. When you implode a building, you do so carefully. You make sure there are no people inside the building, and you clear a safe space around it so passersby don’t find themselves buried under tons of concrete.
As the master of chaos who creates new systems by blowing up old ones with the confidence that he can step into the mayhem and bring about something new, Trump is fine with collapsing the system. It’s like he is standing 500 feet away from the building, watching through binoculars while a henchman pushes down a plunger that sets off explosives hidden inside the structure.
Too bad that bus full of commuters was passing by just as that wall fell.
In his essay in Foreign Affairs, “The World Trump Wants”, Michael Kimmage of the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute discusses the current profound shift in the international order. This is the shift away from the globalist vision to an older vision of strong leaders independently leading great nations. National success in such a system depends upon the skills of the individual leader rather than the expertise of well-educated elites with the competence to work within a rule-based order.
That individualist, strongman vision appeals to the ego of Donald Trump. It is a vision, however, that someone of his limited understanding of the complexities of international relations cannot successfully navigate. We can expect to see American influence shrink as such an international order, or perhaps international disorder, gains ground around the world.
Building the new order
Kimmage looks at four strongmen who have seized control of their nations, constructing systems in which they hold the reigns of power: Russia’s Putin, China’s Xi Jinping. Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and India’s Narendra Modi.
While many consider Putin to be the model followed by Trump, I think his real model is Erdogan, who according to Kimmage “transformed his factionalized democratic ensemble into an autocratic one-man show”.
Just witness Trump’s recent speech before a compliant and emasculated Congress.
Trump Admits to Being an Authoritarian.
He brags about ruling by Presidential Decree
Kimmage refers to these rulers as “self-styled strongmen who place little stock in rule-based systems, alliances, or multinational orders.” He claims that it is they who will fashion the new international order.
I believe that to be correct to an extent (and I am not writing as a scholar of Kimmage’s standing. I’m just a retired teacher who reads a lot). But in my view it is Putin and Ji who will construct the new order. Trump will simply be a dupe to the machinations of these leaders, resulting in a new order much to the disadvantage of the United States.
It would be in the American interest to rally our allies to the maintenance of some parts of the post-WWII order, while also pushing for changes to widen that order to benefit additional nations. But now that Trump has defeated domestically those who stand for that order and is purging them from American government, that will not happen. Instead, we will see the building collapse while Trump applauds. Putin and Ji will then build a system with the US as at best a junior partner.
Trump’s role
Trump will have a major role to play in this scenario, but it will be as an agent of demolition of the old order, not the building of the new. Kimmage writes that the view in many world capitals is that there will be “no one system and no agreed-on set of rules”. Trump, with his delusion that he is the brilliant deal-maker, will find such a system or non-system much to his liking. But it will also be much to the disadvantage of the US as our European allies (or perhaps now ex-allies) see their influence recede.
Putin could not have planned it better.
Kimmage might be something of an optimist. Though I do not think he approves of the coming chaos, he does hold out some hope that the US will navigate it successfully. He writes, “The Trump Administration has the potential to succeed in a revised international order that has been years in the making, But the United States will thrive only if Washington recognizes the danger of so many intersecting national fault lines and neutralizes these risks through patient and open ended diplomacy.”
Patience is not Trump’s long suit, and after witnessing the shameful debacle of the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting, as well as the gutting of the Federal Government by Musk’s DOGE wrecking ball, I cannot share Kimmage’s cautious optimism. Kimmage wrote his piece before the Trump Administration was truly underway, so we have an advantage he did not have. We have witnessed six weeks of chaos and incompetence.
It would be interesting for Kimmage to write another piece for Foreign Affairs taking those events into consideration.
Is Trump up to the challenge?
According to Kimmage, “Trump’s dislike of universalistic internationalism aligns him with Putin, Xi, Modi, and Erdogan.”
Trump surely sees himself as now being in his element. His brand has been built on breaking things, both in the business and the political arenas. His track record in business is not reassuring, having had a string of bankruptcies and a history of being bailed out by various players, including Russian money. If you think he is up to the challenge, I would point out that he is 78 years old and cannot be expected to be around for much longer “to protect us”. I frankly see no one in Trump World to step in once the great deal maker is no longer in the picture.
There is an advantage to building a system based upon institutions rather than strongmen. When a president moves on, which is how our system works, even if Trump disagrees, our “Deep State” institutions are there to carry on.
Kimmage sees our current situation as being quite dangerous. As he puts it “But today, a major war wages in Europe, the Middle East is in disarray, and the old international system is in tatters. A confluence of factors might lead to disaster…”
Trump frankly does not care. In his mind those places are far away. He is the modern incarnation of fortress America. If the rest of the world burns, as long as the Western Hemisphere remains largely under control, all is well. Indeed, a little bit of chaos there, perhaps a worsening drug war in Mexico or economic collapse in Canada, would be to Trump’s liking by weakening those states and allowing the US to expand its territory at their expense.
Canada could become the 51st state and Mexico could be a protectorate, or perhaps a non-voting territory like Puerto Rico.
Kimmage believes that “If Trump and his team can practice it, flexible diplomacy- the deft management of constant tensions and rolling conflicts-could pay big dividends”.
He then goes on to discuss Ukraine, saying “Ukraine will be an early test”. Remember, as I mentioned previously, Kimmage did not have the advantage of witnessing the recent Oval Office meltdown between Zelenskyy, Trump, and Vance. His prescription is for Trump not to seek a hasty peace, but instead to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty and to “help Ukraine determine the rules of engagement with Russia, and through these rules, the war could be gradually minimized.”
Since the Trump-Zelenskyy meltdown, we see that will not happen.
Trump’s approach will kneecap America.
Kimmage knows what he’s talking about. He is not suggesting that the demolition of the post-war system is a good thing, he is simply trying to understand and explain it. And he is trying to parse out how Trump will be a part of the rise of a new system or interlocking systems. He’s not cheerleading, he’s analyzing.
One of his comments is, to my mind, most to the point. He writes, “…the United States has two major assets. The first is its network of alliances, which greatly magnifies Washington’s leverage and room for maneuver. The second is the American practice of economic statecraft, which expands US access to markets and critical resources…”.
Seeing Trump detonate our most important alliances and antagonize our closest allies such as Canada and NATO, as well as threaten to retreat into full blown protectionism through high tariffs, it seems to me that Trump is throwing away those two advantages.
In my view, if Trump is not brought to heel by a resurgent Congress, we will see an international system that is not only broken but is antagonistic to our interests.
And we very well might see an America in wholesale international retreat.